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光大证券:周期“梅花三弄”

光大证券:周期“梅花三弄”
周期“梅花三弄”定做棉服
在需求延续下行及市场利率上升的基本面背景下,市场能见度短期有所下降。与此同时,近期市场面临较多因素扰动,市场情绪也受到一定影响。市场短期存在一定调整压力。配置方面,由于政策引导及部分资金兑现收益,消费板块短期或仍有调整压力。随着采暖季限产开启,周期品价格出现企稳反弹,短期供需紧张叠加春季开工旺季预期提前反应,周期板块短期或有相对收益,建议重点关注钢铁、有色、建材、化工、煤炭等行业的短期交易性机会。
大市短线颠簸加剧 关注本港蓝筹机会
上周A股和港股市场的短期波动均显著提升,但相对于指数的短期震荡北京西服定制,我们认为业绩驱动和估值扩张将继续推动大市的整体向上,但结构分化加剧的格局仍是主流。我们继续强调大市整体上行,恒指在6个月内还将继续刷新历史高点记录的观点。短期内,恒指和国企指数的权重股轮番上涨格局将延续,而其他白马股也将继续与同板块个股拉开差距。当前行情下,回调带来买入机会的逻辑依然成立。本轮港股行情中,本港蓝筹的估值修复领先中资。但由于业绩持续下滑,股息将无法继续支撑估值扩张,国企指数将从估值和业绩两方面追赶恒指。
【行业分析】
水泥价格再创新高
水泥板块配置海螺水泥,优选万年青、华新水泥。错峰生产加强背景下服装定制,供给紧缩预期引致全国水泥价格再度大涨工作服订做。南部地区以海螺水泥、华新水泥为行业龙头标的,四季度为南部旺季,仍有业绩弹性贡献,当前业绩与估值水平基本合理匹配。北部地区四季度为淡季,预计环保加强影响产品走量,在位企业全年业绩再进一步高弹性概率下降。需求端定制T恤,1-10月全国水泥产量同比下降0.5%,全年小幅下降几成定局。
通信领域“两院”筹划重组 关注旗下上市公司订做工作服
通信领域“两院”武汉邮电科学研究院和电信科学技术研究院正筹划重组。合并前期已有预期,兼并重组符合国家央企改革整体战略。在国际主设备商陆续结盟合并的大背景下,大唐系与武邮系若成功合并,与华为、中兴将形成国内三大通信主设备商,进一步提升本土通信企业国际竞争实力厦门定做工作服。虽此次重组主要在上市公司控股股东层面,不涉及上市公司层面整合,但双方旗下的烽火通信强在有线、大唐电信强在无线,双方具备较强的协同性。关注旗下6家上市公司:大唐电信、长江通信、理工光科、烽火通信、光迅科技、高鸿股份。
大盘调整不改零售行业向好趋势
大盘调整不改零售行业向好趋势。展望本周,行业整体情况将继续回暖,加上四季度历来是零售旺季,因此我们对行业,尤其是可选消费品回暖仍然有信心。但品类里有分化,女装,化妆品以及珠宝向好,而涉及地产下游的家具和家电零售逐渐疲软。仍然看好百货,尤其是全国布局的龙头企业,天虹股份和王府井都是值得重点关注的百货股。而超市,看好中小超市,短期关注股权被主要股东增持的中百集团。建议关注:天虹股份、老凤祥、王府井、中百集团和友阿股份。
煤价见底回升 短期看好煤炭板块
港口动力煤价格止跌反弹,炼焦煤价格下跌的幅度远低于市场预期,随着下游焦炭价格开始上涨以及煤焦企业开始冬储,焦煤价格也有望逐步企稳,一季度,焦煤价格受益于下游补库、安全检查、春节放假等因素,存在上涨预期,短期我们看好煤炭板块的表现,建议关注潞安环能、西山煤电、陕西煤业。
【公司评级】
建议买入宇华教育
公司17财年调整后净利润超过市场及我们的预期工衣,全年实现营收8.45亿元人民币,同比增长8%;调整后净利润4.3亿元,同比增长34%, EPS为0.12元人民币;期末派息0.043港元/股。业绩增长主要由于在校生人数增长及学费增长所致工作服加工。毛利率及调整后净利率分别为54.5%及50.8%,较去年同期分别增长2.5及9.6个百分点,主要由于使用率的提升致使经营杠杆逐步释放。公司此前配售及认购事项已完成,收购策略有助把握教育产业整合机遇。维持4.91港元目标价,对应18年26x PE,维持“买入”评级。













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